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It's simple. Just use Bayes' theorem.

The probability she likes you is

[math]P(like|smile) = \frac{P(smile|like)P(like)}{P(smile)}[/math]... (more)

The probability she likes you is

[math]P(like|smile) = \frac{P(smile|like)P(like)}{P(smile)}[/math]... (more)